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  • Tag Archives Markets
  • Precious Metals Crash

    The precious metals investor has to ask, “Why?” All the fundamentals that made gold and silver rise to the highs they saw in August are still in place. How can it all be erased in 3 days?

    First of all, looking at a multi-year chart of gold performance, one can immediately see that the price rise was ascending at a much accelerated pace since July. Here’s the GLD chart which exemplifies this pattern.

    Two year GLD chartThere were good reasons for gold to take off like it did – as political and economic problems persisted in Europe, the middle east and the U.S., things were looking bad. And nothing’s changed. In fact, much has gotten worse! For example, the Swiss have effectively pegged their currency to the Euro, which means there isn’t any true safe haven currency to flee to anymore. In the face of all that, why the sudden plunge in precious metals?

    The “leap” in the┬áslope shown in the graph above is more speculation of future prices, rather than an indication of current prices. And the markets love to take advantage of speculators on both the long and short sides when they can make money from it. And that’s exactly what’s happened here.

    There isn’t a bubble in precious metals. Gold and Silver will continue to rise until the governments of the world stop their incessant spending programs and central banks stop accommodating them by printing paper money at will.

    There are two levels of investing going on here:

    1. Speculators on the long term trend of gold and silver due to the fundamentals;
    2. Traders taking advantage of short-term, irregular trends in the market.

    Keep your cool & stay the course. Watch the trends for good times to buy back into the market (like RIGHT NOW!!!!)

     


  • Buying Silver Mining Companies

    Posted on by admin

     

    Investing in the mining sector in an attempt to profit from the bull market in precious metals can be successful for those investors who understand the industry. Others may come up on the lucky side simply due to the overwhelming price advances of gold and silver.

    In past precious metal markets, the mining company stocks have tended to move in the same direction of the underlying metals, but their volativity have far surpassed that of the metals – sometimes causing exponential price fluctuations compared to the price changes in metals.

    This is largely due to the fact that investments in miners are essentially investments in the stock market. Hence, they are vulnerable to anything affecting the general economy and can move in the opposite direction of the metals, depending on circumstances.

    The mining stocks are particularly vulnerable to political climates and even environmentally-motivated uprisings in countries where the companies are mining. For example, Hugo Chavez announced that he is nationalizing Venezuela’s gold miners. And in Peru, after the latest round of elections, the newly elected president, Ollanta Humala, would definitely like to have a share of the miner industries’ profits in his country, but it isn’t clear if or how that may happen. Nevertheless, just the rumors of government intervention of any kind can send a stock down dramatically.

    Between the threats of government intervention or increasing mining taxes and environmental concerns, one walks a tight rope in determining companies in which to invest.

    On top of these factors, the investor must decide which market-cap range is the best area of investment.

    • Large Cap (Market Capitalization in Billions of dollars & well established)
    • Mid Cap (Market Capitalization in high Millions of dollars)
    • Small Cap (Market Capitalization in low Millions or unestablished)

    Large caps can be more stable, but not have much growth potential. In fact, most large caps depend on buying up small and mid caps in order to sustain growth. Some small caps can yield huge returns. But some are risky because they can run out of cash and go belly-up before any significant find is established. The trick is knowing which ones have the greatest potential.

    So it is worth repeating…if the investor doesn’t know the industry, then perhaps a better label for the activity of investment would be gambling.

    But there are knowledgeable people in the industry. And one way to take advantage of that knowledge is to invest in minor-related ETFs and Mutual Funds. These types of funds hold baskets of various stocks, chosen by the funds’ management.

    Below is a table of some precious metal equities, but it should be noted that these are not recommendations – each investor should initiate his/her own investigations prior to making any investments. The table is provided for informational purposes only.

    Disclaimer: The author either owns, has owned, or is contemplating owning the listings in this table.

    Large Caps

    SilverSaver(R) - Save Physical Silver and Gold
    AEM
    Stock – AgniCo Eagle Mines Ltd
    EGO
    Stock – Eldorado Gold Corp
    GG
    Stock – Goldcorp
    KGC
    Stock – Kinross Gold Corp
    PAAS
    Stock – Pan American Silver Corp
    SLW
    Stock – Silver Wheaton Corp
    SVM
    Stock – Silvercorp Metals Inc
    AUY
    Stock – Yamana Gold Inc
    TGLDX
    Mutual Fund – Tocqueville Gold
    USERX
    Mutual Fund – U.S. Global Investors Gold & Precious Metals
    UNWPX
    Mutual Fund – U.S. Global Investors World Precious Minerals
    GDX
    ETF – Market Vectors Gold Miners
    Mid & Small Caps
    CA:AMM
    Stock – Almaden Minerals Ltd
    CA:BYV
    Stock – Bayfield Ventures Corp
    CA:CGT
    Stock – Columbus Gold Corp
    CA:EAS
    Stock – East Asia Minerals
    FSM
    Stock – Fortuna Silver Mines
    THM
    Stock – International Tower Hill Mines Ltd
    CA:TWD
    Stock – Trade Winds Ventures Inc
    XRA
    Stock – Exeter Resource Corp
    AG
    Stock – First Majestic
    GDXJ
    ETF – Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners

     


  • Buying Silver-Based ETFs

    Posted on by admin

    Using ETFs to Participate in the Precious Metals Bull Run
    The number of available Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) has dramatically increased over the past decade. They allow the common investor to participate in classes of investments that used to be accessible to a select few, specialized investors & institutions.

    But the relative ease and convenience of an ETF doesn’t necessarily mean they are safe investments. In fact, quite the opposite – they can be quite volatile. And since they are a derivative of the underlying asset or financial instruments, every investor should understand that the ETF does not yeild any ownership of anything but a share of stock. (It is not as if the underlying asset or financial instruments are being purchased.) At best, any ETF can only propose to have similar price-performance compared to the underlying instrument.

    While it is true that some ETFs provide for the exchange of stock shares for the underlying assets, this option is closed to most investors simply due to the minimum number of shares necessary to execute such an option.

    Any investor wishing to participate in the precious metals bull market by utilizing the ETF arena should understand that it is not the same thing as owning precious metals. Instead, it’s a paper asset and should be treated as such. It should also be realized that all ETFs are not managed the same, nor are they even structured the same. On top of that, given any specific ETF, there will always be varying opinions among different analysts regarding the validity and expected performance of that same ETF. As an example, here’s an article discussing and comparing some of the prospects of the GLD, SLV, PHYS and PSLV ETFs.

    When it comes to ETFs based on precious metals, there are a variety of different types:

    • Standard ‘bull’ ETFs linking the price of one share to the price of a specific amount of a precious metal. The price of the shares tend to move more or less in synch with the underlying metal’s price movements.
    • Standard ‘bear’ ETFs also linking the price of one share to the price of a specific amount of a precious metal. Only the share price tends to move in the opposite direction of the metal. (The share price goes up if the price of the underlying metal goes down.)
    • Leveraged ETFs seek to give double (or sometimes triple) exposure to share price movements of twice (or more) the amount of the underlying metal. Again, these can be either bull or bear type exposure. (Incidentally, these leveraged ETFs are becoming quite a concern to market regulators in Washington. A derivative of a derivative of the underlying asset doesn’t seem so friendly to free markets. This related article discusses the dangers of the derivatives market.)

    Below are some of the more popular ETFs in the precious metals space. Please note that this list is not comprehensive and these are not recommendations, but provided for informational purposes only.

    ETF Asset Description
    GLD
    Gold
    SPDR Gold Shares tends to have share-price performance similar to the price movements of gold.
    SLV
    Silver
    iShares Silver Trust tends to have share-price performance similar to the price movements of silver.
    PHYS
    Gold
    Sprott Physical Gold Trust tends to have share-price performance similar to the price movements of gold.
    PSLV
    Silver
    Sprott Physical Silver Trust tends to have share-price performance similar to the price movements of silver.
    SGOL
    Gold
    ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares tends to have share-price performance similar to the price movements of gold.
    SIVR
    Silver
    ETFS Physical Silver Shares tends to have share-price performance similar to the price movements of silver.
    CEF
    Gold & Silver
    Central Fund of Canada tends to have share-price performance similar to the price movements of a proportional amounts of gold and silver.
    UGL
    Gold
    ProShares Ultra Gold tends to have share-price performance similar to twice the price movements of gold.
    AGQ
    Silver
    ProShares Ultra Silver tends to have share-price performance similar to twice the price movements of silver.
    GLL
    Gold
    ProShares Ultra Short Gold tends to have share-price performance similar to twice the price movements of gold in the opposite direction.
    ZSL
    Silver
    ProShares Ultra Short Silver tends to have share-price performance similar to twice the price movements of silver in the opposite direction.



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