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“We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves,” according to Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor and former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager. “The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives.“ See entire presentation below.
It’s now more important than ever to protect your hard-earned wealth from being destroyed by inflation or even outright theft by financial and government institutions. Please see our Protect Your Assets series to learn about ways to secure your wealth in the coming economic collapse.
Update May 16, 2012: In contrast with Jim Willie’s speculation below, a much more renowned Jim Rickards has a much more probable thesis on the JP Morgan loss. The trade was actually a bet on the spread between the bond index and the bonds themselves. Time ran out, resulting in the loss. Read about it at USNews.
Here’s an interview with Jim Willie (TheGoldenJackass) discussing his speculation on what’s really going on regarding JP Morgan’s $2 billion dollar ‘whale trader’ loss. Jim speculates that JPM’s declaration that it involved European bond investments that have gone bad doesn’t make sense because in the last 6 weeks those bonds haven’t changed so much to warrant such huge losses. More likely, according to Jim, is that these losses are much larger and they reflect losses in the credit derivatives markets. Furthermore, eastern nations like China are likely causing the rout in precious metals because they’re forcing the western commercial banks to sell to cover these losses in the derivatives markets.
James Koutoulas, a lawer representing clients of MF Global who lost an estimated $1.2 billion, reveals the ugly truth behind what caused MF Global to declare bankruptcy.
MF Global moved investment funds to the United Kingdom, where there is no limit to the leverage that can be used in rehypothecating client assets.
MF Global then invested those funds in European debt futures, leveraged perhaps 40-times, believing the troubled nations like Greece would eventually be bailed out. (Note that higher leverage means tighter margins.)
Then, with the extreme volativity in the latter part of 2011 when there were weeks of rumors coming out of the media hinting of both defaults and bail-outs, the investment went sour as margin calls forced MF Global to pony up more cash. They had no other option but to go into their segregated client accounts and allegedly steal cash to cover the margin calls.
In this interview with Jim Sinclair, the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market is thoroughly discussed. There are 5 major banks that control almost all of the CDS contracts issued. These 5 banks also heavily influence the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), which will decide whether defaults actually occur when the sovereign nations of Europe don’t pay their creditors. For example, when Greece was allowed to free themselves of 50% of their debt recently, the ISDA decided that was NOT a default, hence the CDS contracts the 5 major banks issued were not triggered. Those that bought the CDS contracts were screwed. And now the ISDA is deciding whether or not the current 70% haircut being imposed on Greek bond holders is a default. Obviously, the ‘self-governing’ CDS market is not going to shoot themselves, so the CDS purchasers are going to be screwed again!
Sinclair points out that this credit event is signaling global quantitative easing because if Greece and the other sovereign nations can keep selling bonds without the obligation to pay back creditors, bond buyers will get wise to the scheme and not purchase. QE will therefore be necessary – money will be created out of thin air to buy the bonds no one wants to buy. This will support much higher prices for precious metals and general equities.
March 2, 2012 update: Sure enough, the ISDA has just declared that no Greek ‘credit event’ occurred. So, why the hell would any institution invest in CDS insurance anyway? That’s a good question that many are now asking.
